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Document 2314
DOCN M94A2314
TI Prediction of the incidence of AIDS/HIV in Japan by Delphi method.
DT 9412
AU Kamakura M; Shimada N; Ichikawa S; Soda K; Morio S; Fukutomi K;
Hashimoto S; Shiomi S; Department of Preventive Medicine and Public
Health, School of; Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):332 (abstract no. PC0262). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370261
AB OBJECTIVE: The cumulative number of AIDS cases (685 as of Dec. 31, 1993)
and HIV carriers (2496) in Japan are very small among developed
countries. The coverage rate of the report of carriers in Japan is,
however, always the point at issue. The object of this study is to
estimate the incidence of AIDS/HIV now and in the near future and the
related sociomedical issues by Delphi method, a technique of Operations
Research. METHODS: One hundred and sixty-three specialists on AIDS
research (microbiologists, clinicians, epidemiologists, etc.) were
selected for the survey by us. The 1st survey was taken from Dec. 1992
to Feb. 1993 by the mailing and collection of questionnaires. The
questionnaire contains the question about the estimated real incidence
of cases and carriers in Japan in 1992, 1997 and 2002. It also includes
the questions about the attack rate of carriers, the method of AIDS
education and the possibility of practical use of vaccination. The 2nd
survey was taken from Sep. 1993 to Nov. 1993 for 94 respondents, mailing
the 2nd questionnaire with statistical data of the 1st survey. RESULTS
AND CONCLUSIONS: The number of final respondents of the 2nd survey was
60. The range of each index was reduced about by half. Estimated medians
of cumulative AIDS cases (excluding the cases of
haemophilia/coagulation) in Japan at the end of 1992, 1997 and 2002 were
200, 1,200, and 3,500 respectively, and those of HIV carriers (excluding
AIDS cases) were 1,500, 10,000, 18,300 respectively. If these medians
are adopted as dominators, the coverage rate of AIDS case is calculated
at 90.0% and that of HIV carriers becomes 57.7%. Estimated median of the
final attack rate of AIDS for carriers was 95%. The majority of
respondents thought that the appropriate time for the basic AIDS
education was junior high school grades. About half of the respondents
answered in the affirmative to the question of the practical use of
vaccination. The limitation of Delphi method as statistical technique
should surely be recognized, but the coverage rates of the HIV infection
in Japan seemed not so low as generally assumed.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &
CONTROL/TRANSMISSION AIDS Vaccines/ADMINISTRATION & DOSAGE Delphi
Technique Forecasting Health Education Human HIV
Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION & CONTROL/TRANSMISSION HIV
Seropositivity/EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION HIV Seroprevalence/*TRENDS
Japan/EPIDEMIOLOGY Models, Statistical Population Surveillance
MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).